How prediction markets work

Prices are probabilities. Here is how that works in practice.

Every market has two sides, Yes and No, whose prices always add up to about 1.00 USDC. If Yes trades at 0.70, No trades at about 0.30.

Buying

Buying Yes shares profits if the event happens; buying No profits if it does not. You can buy either side of any market.

Prices move

Naugur uses an automated market maker plus a live order book. As people buy a side, its price rises; as they sell, it falls. Sports markets also re-price automatically from the live score.

Settlement

When the event concludes, the market resolves to the true outcome. Winning shares are worth 1.00 each; losing shares are worth 0. See “Payouts & Resolution”.

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