To keep every market fair for the people trading it, Forecasters operate under a few firm rules.
You don’t resolve your own market
Resolution is always handled by Naugur or its oracle against the public source you named, never by you. This protects traders and your market’s credibility.
You don’t trade your own market
Forecasters can’t take positions in markets they created, to avoid any conflict of interest.
Clear, honest questions
Markets must have objective, verifiable resolution criteria stated up front. Misleading or unresolvable markets can be removed. See the Market Integrity policy at naugur.com/market-integrity.
Market-maker risk
Seeding a market puts your staked capital at market-maker risk. You earn from fees and the spread, but as the initial liquidity provider you can also take a loss on the seed depending on how trading and resolution play out.